Dec 12, 2007 :

Far be it for me to ever criticize our government, our scientists, or our politicians, but has anyone seen a hurricane this season? Wasn't this global warming thing supposed to churn up the atmosphere, heat the Atlantic ocean and provide us with catastrophic amount of hurricanes this season? Have we all missed something or am I right in saying that no one can predict the weather, especially a so called hurricane expert sitting in his rocking chair in Colorado. Not only are we to listen to his bull, but now he has a young apprentice, another PHD Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray ( seen in the picture above right). Klotzbach will  continue on the tradition of predicting what cannot be predicted, the amount of hurricanes in any season.

Let's be fair of course.  In the article entitled  The Myth of Weather Forecasting, I wrote about the fact that Dr. Gray, the man that predicts in every December how many hurricanes we will get  the  following year.  Then for the media picks up the forecast and tells us what this guy said. Then FEMA picks up his predictions, and then allocates millions and millions of taxpayers money to make sure resources are in place to handle the expected outcome.  What follows is that the insurance companies then go to Tallahassee and ask for an increase based on this predict in.  Since this guy has predicting hurricanes he is off between 50 to 100 percent almost all the time on the number.

Don't believe me?  Take a look at the chart below:

So what does all of this mean? Simply put, Mr Gray and his team is never on the money.  Instead he can predict how many hurricanes with a certainty of 0 and a deviation of 49 percent on average. 

As a matter of fact, if you look at the figures above,  all anyone needed to say was that there is on average 7 hurricanes a year give or take a few.  Nothing scientific about this.  Just common sense.

So where have all the hurricanes gone that so called experts in weather prediction have said with such certainty was going to hit us this year?  After all, we have certain politicians telling us that the sky is falling ( Al Gore in his Global Warming nonsense click here).  If we are to trust anyone predicting the weather, then we need to hold them to task on the validity of their predictions. 

My opinion is that the experts in weather prediction can only tell you what is coming up within 4-5 days with any certainty that we can count on.  Predicting how many hurricanes without telling the population that the prediction in itself is not very accurate is to say the least misleading. Dr. Gray and company needs to put a warning label on their statements  such as

 " Warning - The prediction we make concerning the amount of hurricanes that are going to occur next season may in fact be wrong. So don't depend on it!"

However, they will never do this because doing so may jeopardize the government grant money that keeps their BS flowing. 

Remember. The same people getting it wrong on the amount of hurricanes that are going to occur each year are the same people that are telling you that the ice cap will melt and Florida will become nothing more than an atoll with its garbage mountains extending above sea level.

If you really believe in the hurricane prediction that Dr. Gray makes, then please contact me.  I have some more swampland to sell you.